Potentially strong El Niño chances growing On March 6th, the National Oceanographic and Atmos

Potentially strong El Niño chances growingOn March 6th, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued a watch saying that there was a 50% chance of an El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean this year. Since that report, the situation has continued developing on a path towards a strong El Niño during the 2014-2015 year and researchers have suggested the odds are now over 60%.An El Niño event is a fundamental shift in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean waters. In a normal year, the Trade Winds blow from East to West in the central Pacific, pushing surface waters warmed by the sun to the Western Pacific where they pile up against Asia and contribute to that area’s humid, rainy summers.However, this pattern sometimes breaks down; if high pressure forms early in the year over Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific, that high pressure can push the winds the other way. In that case, the warm Pacific waters pile up against the western coastline of South America, fundamentally changing the global climate for the year. In this photo you see the change in sea surface temperatures over the last month, with strong warming in the waters off of South America, suggestive of an El Niño forming (circle added by NOAA).Other measurements confirm these surface temperatures. The US maintains an El Niño monitoring system off the South American coastline, established after billion dollar losses in the 1983 El Niño. Although more than ½ of those buoys have failed due to budget cuts (see here:https://www.facebook.com/TheEarthStory/posts/635590396502008), the remaining buoys are showing high water temperatures.In fact, some east-directed wind bursts have reached as much as 30 mph and some buoys have detected water over 4°C hotter than normal, deviations stronger than those observed prior to the monster 1997-1998 El Niño (it’d be really nice to have a 100% operational buoy system right now. Shame).It does remain possible the weather could disperse this El Niño. A breakup of the high-pressure systems over the Western Pacific and a resumption of west-directed winds can break up El Niño events in their infancy; an El Niño watch was issued a couple years ago before the weather pattern broke apart. However, the resemblance to conditions prior to the monster 1997-1998 event is striking.El Niño events are in general…bad. Overall economic losses in the US from the strongest recorded El Niño event, in 1997-1998, totaled an estimated $25 billion (greater now when inflation-adjusted). El Niño is like throwing a wrench in the weather; significant storms and flooding hit areas that aren’t used to them, while others, particularly tropical areas of Southeast Asia, suffer unusual droughts. Severe winter storms appear more common, and even animal populations can suffer; fisheries have collapsed during El Niño events before.However, there are some effects that might make people hope for an El Niño event this year. El Niño events typically produce wetter than average winters in California, which could assist in breaking the severe drought in that state, and El Niño events also suppress hurricane formation in the Atlantic Ocean which is good for anyone exposed to those.The 1997-1998 El Niño broke all records, caused enormous amounts of damage worldwide, and led to one of the warmest years in climate records. With the planet having warmed for 16 more years already, a similar magnitude El Niño could well be more damaging and once again break records for the warmest year in recorded history.-JBBImage credit: NOAAhttp://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elNiño/1997.htmlRead more:http://mashable.com/2014/03/19/intense-el-Nino-maybe/http://www.elNino.noaa.gov/http://www.spacedaily.com/news/pacific-02g.html -- source link

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