xhxhxhx:RAND guys just playing tabletop games to test out NATO strategyThe research documented in th
xhxhxhx:RAND guys just playing tabletop games to test out NATO strategyThe research documented in this report was conducted in aseries of wargames conducted between the summer of 2014and early spring 2015. Players included RAND analysts andboth uniformed and civilian members of various Departmentof Defense organizations, including the U.S. Army, U.S. AirForce, U.S. Navy, U.S. Marine Corps, Joint Staff, U.S. Army inEurope, and U.S. Air Forces, Europe, as well as NATO NavalCommand, Europe.RAND developed this map-based tabletop exercise becauseexisting models were ill-suited to represent the many unknownsand uncertainties surrounding a conventional military campaignin the Baltics, where low force-to-space ratios and relatively openterrain meant that maneuver between dispersed forces—ratherthan pushing and shoving between opposing units arrayed alonga linear front—would likely be the dominant mode of combat.Further, the novelty of the scenario meant that there was littleto go on in terms of strategic or operational concepts for eitherside; the free play of experts was needed to begin developingreasonable plans, branches, and sequels.The general game design was similar to that of traditionalboard wargames, with a hex grid governing movement superimposedon a map. Tactical Pilotage Charts (1:500,000 scale)were used, overlaid with 10-km hexes, as seen in Figure A.1.Land forces were represented at the battalion level and air unitsas squadrons; movement and combat were governed and adjudicatedusing rules and combat-result tables that incorporatedboth traditional gaming principles (e.g., Lanchester exchangerates) and the results of offline modeling. We also developedoffline spreadsheet models to handle both inter- and intratheatermobility. All these were subject to continual refinementas we repeatedly played the game, although the basic structureand content of the platform proved sound.Orders of battle and tables of organization and equipmentwere developed using unclassified sources. Ground unit combatstrengths were based on a systematic scoring of individual weapons,from tanks and artillery down to light machine guns, whichwere then aggregated according to the tables of organization andequipment for the various classes of NATO and Russian units.Overall unit scores were adjusted to account for differences intraining, sustainment, and other factors not otherwise captured.Air unit combat strengths were derived from the results of offlineengagement, mission, and campaign-level modeling.Full documentation of the gaming platform will be forthcomingin a subsequent report.*bangs on table* RELEASE THE GAMING PLATFORM -- source link