El Nino at work: More floods in EnglandThe last several winters have seen extensive flooding in the

El Nino at work: More floods in EnglandThe last several winters have seen extensive flooding in the British isles, due to a blocked atmospheric river (see http://on.fb.me/1ORqDNZ) pounding the Isles with repeated bursts of moisture charged water, resulting in torrential rains (see last year’s post on similar events at http://on.fb.me/1NJkqWE). Just a couple of weeks ago storm Desmond brought 30 cm of rain in a few hours, bringing renewed flooding to the Lake district, with Cockermouth and Kendal enduring just the latest in a series of inundations (making 6,000 homeless) and the city of Carlisle taking an aqueous pounding (the former two remain on high alert).Over the last 48 hours, massive flooding has hit the north east, with Yorkshire and Lancashire being the hardest hit. A months worth of rain fell in a day, flood defences were overwhelmed in several places (including electricity substations), and several major cities (including Manchester, York and Leeds) are part underwater.Many hundreds have been evacuated and the army has been called in to assist (though many troopers already spent a soggy Christmas strengthening flood defences in the areas hit by Desmond). Weather forecasts predict further heavy rains this week as storm Frank piles into northern Britain, dumping yet more rain onto already saturated ground, which will no doubt compound the situation. This month has been the wettest December since records began, with four times the average for the month falling in the first 3 weeks. The ground is saturated so any further rain will runoff and start heading sea wards, not minding what human structures stand in the way.Some places (eg Whalley, east Lancashire) are flooded for the second time in a fortnight, and the population was evacuated by boat, while a sinkhole appeared on a major motorway, during the busy end of year driving season. Several towns are entirely cut off, and only reachable by boat or helicopter, while others are underwater.Scientists are interpreting the stuck atmospheric river pattern to global warming, exacerbated by the effects of the current El Nino, which is the strongest since 1998 and now at its peak. The physics is simple: warmer air holds more water vapour, and hence more potential rain. Warm the atmosphere and rainfall increases, something that we should expect to continue over the coming years and act accordingly to build resilience.A major political polemic is ongoing, since many feel that government cuts (due to so called austerity) to flood defences by a government with many members who are openly sceptical about climate change has exacerbated the damage, but these ongoing events are hopefully costly enough to force a rethink, if only under pressure from the insurance industry. Whatever the wishful thinking of politicians, it seems likely that such ‘unprecedented’ weather events are with us for the foreseeable future. For now, it’s a case of hoping for no more rain with fingers crossed, and picking up the pieces, with the bill for Desmond and this lot estimated by PWC at some 1.5 billion pounds. It will be some time before the true extent of the damage becomes clear, if the weather lets up…..The other posts in this series:http://on.fb.me/1OSg0dHhttp://on.fb.me/1JEC5Lahttp://on.fb.me/1SjYm8eLozImage credit: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images 3: John Giles/PA 4: Ian Forsyth/Getty ImagesPhoto gallery: http://bit.ly/1UdJuqthttp://bit.ly/1OfQt1Nhttp://bit.ly/1OSftbyhttp://bit.ly/1QQiq2Ihttp://bit.ly/1Vl1O1Thttp://bit.ly/1Pk7HMuhttp://bit.ly/1NRbzjnhttp://bit.ly/1MDbgae -- source link
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