SourceI’ve been avoiding posting about politics for a while, but noticed this today, and I rea
SourceI’ve been avoiding posting about politics for a while, but noticed this today, and I really couldn’t avoid commenting, particularly on the claim “that the Congressional delegation & state legislature will be red in perpetuity.” I understand Run for Something is trying to gin up support for its efforts, so this kind of rhetoric is to be expected; however, it provides an opportunity to discuss some past and recent history. The idea that partisan gerrymandering will make Texas red or blue in perpetuity ignores demographic change, which is how Texas became Republican in the first place, despite Democrat gerrymandering. This is an issue I’ve discussed at some length on this blog, specifically that due to demographic change (migration, economic/wealth shifts, etc.) the Republican party began to grow, especially in urban/suburban areas, eventually controlling the state legislature in 2003, when they promptly began to redraw the political maps.See the following posts: Partisan Shifts in the States Dallas TX, “Nut Country” Republican Patterns in Urban-Rural Categories More recently (2016-2018), we can see a similar trend. Only this time its suburban counties becoming Democrat, especially around Austin, DFW, and Houston. For example, in 2018, Beto won Hays, Fort Ben and Williamson counties - all of which had been Republican counties but have been trending Democrat. Democrats also won state legislative seats in these counties, as well as other previously Republican seats, which is why they only need 9 seats to flip the Texas House in 2020, and their targets are again in seats which are trending away from the Republicans in spite of any partisan gerrymanders. See the following posts: Let’s Get Down to Business What’s the Trump Effect? New Texas Swing Districts? In other words, demographic change eventually overtakes partisan gerrymandering. -- source link
#politics#gerrymandering#demographics