Atlantic Hurricane Season beginsHurricane season in the Atlantic basin runs for 6 months beginning J

Atlantic Hurricane Season beginsHurricane season in the Atlantic basin runs for 6 months beginning June 1, and the US Climate Prediction Center Atlantic hurricane season outlook was issued May 27. According to that outlook, this year stands a good chance of being more active than last year. The 2015 hurricane season was generally a below average season, with 11 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes; a below average season in 2015 wasn’t surprising as El Niño events tend to be associated with shearing winds over the Atlantic that can disrupt storm formation. With that El Niño dissipating, one of the main contributors to a below average season has been removed, leading to a prediction for a more normal hurricane season. NOAA’s outlook is calling for a 70 percent chance of 10 to 16 named storms, with 4 to 8 strengthening to hurricanes, and 1 to 4 possible major hurricanes (category 3,4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale).NOAA has noted that this is a particularly difficult year to offer predictions, so it is possible that this year’s estimate could miss badly. The last 3 years have seen a shift in the locations of warm and cold water in the Atlantic to the east, a process known as the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, which typically limits formation of large storms. However, it isn’t yet known how long that pattern will last. If it is a true multi-decade switch it could mark a change in the pattern of hurricanes that has been present since 1995, but the driving forces for these oceanic oscillations aren’t well understood and so a change back to the warmer conditions could also be possible.The United States is currently in an unprecedented hurricane drought. It has been over 10 years since the last time a “major” hurricane struck the United States, the longest such period in the historical record. There seems to be no reason for this drought other than the vagaries of statistics, as there have been plenty of major storms over that time, including storms that have done major damage to the U.S. such as Sandy, but there have been no landfalls of category 3+ hurricanes. NOAA is actively working to improve its computer modeling and forecasting capabilities as even if this turns out to be a below-average year for hurricane formation, the drought in major hurricane impacts is going to end at some point.The Pacific Ocean saw a truly extreme hurricane season in 2015, with storms fed by waters of the strongest El Niño event on record. With the dissipation of that El Niño, a more normal hurricane and typhoon season is currently forecast for 2016, but that forecast will depend a lot on the development of a possible La Niña event. La Niña is the counterpart to El Niño, a pool of cold water in the central Pacific, and La Niña events have been seen to follow El Niño years in the past.-JBBReferences:http://1.usa.gov/1P3SlNOhttp://usat.ly/1DGrvi5http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Hurricane Joaquin approaching the Bahamas as a category 4 storm, 2015. -- source link

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